Value Creation  |  Acquisitions

From 612,000 registrants to one company.

Start with everyone in the country competing for federal contracts. Narrow by two variables only: size — $2–10M in federal revenue — and activity — that revenue earned within the last two to three years, not sitting stale in a directory. What remains is the set of companies Fabius Group could actually purchase. Sector and current set-aside status are irrelevant: the acquired company becomes SDVOSB-certified under new 100% service-disabled-veteran ownership after closing.

Best fit: owners of federal services firms with $2–10M in federal revenue who are thinking about what comes next.

612K
Entities registered in SAM.gov to pursue federal work[1]
~14%
Share of registrants that actually win a contract in a given year[1]
$2–10M
The revenue band we buy in — large enough to carry debt, small enough to finance

The funnel

612,000The market — competing for federal contracts
Everybody in the country

Every entity registered in SAM.gov to pursue federal work. Only ~85,000 of them — about 14% — actually win anything in a given year; the rest are inactive registrations, not businesses.[1]

≈ 15,000The size neighborhood — $1M+ in awards
Cut one · Size

Fewer than 18% of active winners exceed $1M in awards; 60% of winners earn under $100K — hobby scale.[1] This is the part of the market we shop in: real companies with real federal revenue.

5–10,000Est.Our segment — $2–10M, earned in last 2–3 yrs
Cut two · Activity

$2–10M in federal revenue, earned within the last two to three years. Recency is the proof of life — it separates firms actually competing and winning today from dead or stale entries that have been sitting in the system for years. Verified per-company on USAspending.gov.[2]

≈ 200–500Est.Purchasable
Succession signals

Owner 55+, firm twelve-plus years old, sole owner, flat revenue. Flat is the signature of a tired owner — that is what a fair price looks like.

1Acquisition
Direct outreach → LOI → close

Certify as SDVOSB through SBA VetCert immediately at closing[3] — a new set-aside channel the seller never had.

Bar widths are illustrative, not to scale — each tier is roughly a 40–85% cut of the one above. Figures marked “Est.” are working estimates derived from screening logic, not published counts.

Activity and size are the whole screen

Deliberately ignored

  • Sector and NAICS: a durable $5M federal business is a durable $5M federal business
  • Current certifications: the target does not need to be SDVOSB, 8(a), or anything else — certification comes with the new owner
  • Growth story: flat revenue with a retiring owner beats a growth narrative at auction prices

Checked later, in diligence — not in the screen

Prime versus subcontract mix, with majority prime preferred. Trajectory within the window — steady across the two to three years, or one spike year. Concentration, with no single contract over roughly half of revenue. Runway — option years remaining and recompete timing.

Why recent revenue beats directory data

SAM and DSBS listings persist for years after a firm goes quiet. Award data on USAspending.gov is dated to the transaction — a firm that generated $2–10M within the last two to three years is likely alive, competing, and winning today. The registry says who exists; recent spend says who is real.[2]

Diligence, not filtering: which revenue survives the purchase. Set-aside status never excludes a target — but it changes what the P&L is worth, because some revenue streams cannot follow a new owner. Fabius Group prices only what survives.

  • Full-and-open competitive revenueSurvives — the best quality; won on performance, not preference
  • SDVOSB / VOSB set-aside revenueSurvives — the buyer is the qualifying service-disabled veteran
  • HUBZone revenueConditional — location-based, not owner-based; survives only if the firm still qualifies
  • 8(a) and WOSB set-aside revenueDies at closing — status-based on the seller; discounted to zero[4]

Illustrative Capital Structure

An example: $3.0M purchase price plus roughly $300K of working capital and fees, for a total project cost of $3.3M. One column, three layers — the buyer's cash is the smallest piece.

$2.55MSBA 7(a) loan · ~77%
$420KSeller note · ~13%
$330KEquity injection · 10%

SBA 7(a) loan — the engine

Up to $5M, ten-year fully amortizing term, no balloon. Floating rate, typically WSJ Prime plus 2.25–3.0%. Secured by a lien on business assets and an unconditional personal guarantee from any 20%+ owner. The lender underwrites to the company's cash flow, with debt-service coverage of roughly 1.25x or better expected.[5]

Seller note — the alignment layer

Typically 10–15% of price, subordinated to the SBA loan. It keeps the seller invested in a clean transition — relationships, novations, key employees. On full standby, SBA rules can allow part of it to count toward the required equity injection, shrinking cash needed at closing.[5]

Equity injection — the buyer's cash

SBA requires a minimum of 10% of total project cost from the buyer — here, $330K controls a $3.3M acquisition. This is the entire cash requirement; the other 90% is financed against the business being bought.

The debt service check — the number that makes or breaks it. $2.55M at roughly 10% over ten years is about $405K per year of debt service. A target producing $700K–$1M of EBITDA covers that 1.7–2.5 times — comfortable. This is why the funnel screens for $2–10M revenue firms: below that band, EBITDA cannot carry the debt that buying the company requires. Figures are illustrative, not a term sheet; rates float with Prime, structures vary by lender, and seller-note standby treatment is subject to current SBA SOP rules.

How the funnel gets executed

  1. Data pass — registry to target universe

    Start from the SAM and DSBS registries. Kill inactive registrations, then verify every survivor's actual revenue history on USAspending.gov: annual obligations, prime versus sub mix, agency spread, and contract end dates. The registry says who exists; the spend data says who is real.

  2. Signal pass — target universe to purchasable

    Rank survivors by succession signals: company age, owner age and tenure, single-owner structure, revenue plateau, and recompetes coming due in the next eighteen to thirty-six months.

  3. Outreach — purchasable to deals

    Direct, confidential letters to owners. The listed market prices deals at auction; the unlisted majority is where fairly-priced transactions happen — no broker process, no bidding war, a conversation between principals.

  4. Close and certify

    SBA 7(a) financing, a stock purchase to avoid contract novation, and the VetCert application filed at closing. Set-aside eligibility begins at certification — typically weeks, not months — opening a channel the business never had before.[3]

Own a federal contracting business?

If your firm generates $2–10M in federal revenue and you're thinking about what comes next, we'd like to talk — directly, confidentially, and without a broker process.

Start the Conversation

Sources & References

  1. SLED.AI, "Government Contracting Statistics for Small Businesses: 2026 Report" — SAM.gov registration counts, annual winner rates, and award-size distribution.
  2. USAspending.gov — official source of federal award and obligation data, used for per-company revenue verification.
  3. U.S. Small Business Administration, Veteran Contracting Assistance Programs — VetCert certification; see also 13 C.F.R. Part 128 on SDVOSB ownership and control requirements.
  4. PilieroMazza, "SBA Final Rule Significantly Changes Effect of Size/Status Recertifications" — recertification consequences in government-contractor M&A.
  5. U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) Loans — program terms; equity-injection and seller-standby treatment per current SBA SOP 50 10.

References current as of July 2026. Tier figures marked “Est.” are Fabius Group working estimates derived from published aggregate statistics; they are not official counts. Nothing on this page is legal, tax, or investment advice.